Wind and solar potential in the Mediterranean

COP31 arrives in the Mediterranean¹ at a consequential moment for the region’s energy transition. Climate change is already acutely affecting the Mediterranean, as evidenced by this summer’s wildfires that have been ravaging Southern Europe. This trend is expected to worsen, as the region is warming about 20% faster than the global average and is vulnerable to extreme events like floods, droughts, and wildfires. At the same time, the war in Iran and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have greatly disrupted regional supply of fossil fuels in the region, underscoring the value of more adaptable, resilient, and secure energy systems.

Given this backdrop, the Mediterranean enters COP31 with a significant renewable opportunity already taking shape. The region has more than 550 GW of prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity, with major development on both sides of the Mediterranean. Wind and solar already contribute 251.6 GW of operating capacity, about a third of the regional power mix. The challenge now is increasingly one of implementation: turning prospective projects into operating capacity quickly, equitably, and at scale. 

Countries across the region are not starting from scratch. Governments have established collaborative frameworks around grid infrastructure, investment, technical assistance, knowledge exchange, and energy transition planning, while civil society organizations are organizing and educating stakeholders, advocating to policymakers, and supporting sustainable development. COP31, hosted in  Antalya, Türkiye, offers an opportunity to build on that groundwork and sharpen attention on the practical barriers that will determine how much of the Mediterranean’s planned renewable capacity is actually realized.

Spain and Egypt illustrate two different pathways for rapid wind and solar deployment. Whereas Spain is a mature renewable energy market that has grown rapidly in recent years, Egypt is a quickly emerging market with political, regulatory, and industrial support. As the success of the Mediterranean’s energy transition relies on strengthened integration between Southwest Asia and North Africa (SWANA) and Southern Europe, these two countries are identified as pioneering actors from each subregion.

When governments and other stakeholders gather in Antalya for COP31, the Mediterranean has an opportunity to move the conversation from renewable ambition toward delivery on permitting timelines, uneven financing, and grid availability, all of which present barriers to renewable deployment. Addressing these obstacles could present countries across the Mediterranean with new opportunities for technical knowledge exchange and regional integration.

Planned regional wind and solar exceeds total prospective  U.S. power

The Mediterranean region possesses immense opportunity to build out wind and utility-scale solar. Global Energy Monitor’s (GEM) Global Integrated Power Tracker shows that prospective wind and utility-scale solar in the region is slightly greater than the United States’ entire planned capacity, including all generation types (552.0 GW versus 548.3 GW). The Mediterranean also hosts about 10% of the prospective global wind and utility-scale solar capacity with projected commercial operation dates before the end of 2030. 

The Mediterranean has a collective 251.6 GW of wind and solar installed, with 100.9 GW of wind and 150.7 GW of solar. More than 40% of the current operating solar capacity is distributed. GEM data indicates that, based only on announced projects, wind and utility-scale solar installations could rise to over 360 GW, though not all projects are likely to reach completion on time. GEM analyses previously showed that only about half of globally planned wind and solar became operational on schedule in 2024. But the scale of early stage projects today in the Mediterranean indicates strong stakeholder appetite.

Development of renewables in the Mediterranean has been fairly uneven, though this pattern may change as more projects come online. Most operational renewables (about 82.5%) in the region have been deployed in Europe, despite North Africa’s incredible technical renewable potential. Near-term prospective capacity is more balanced, with Europe expecting to house 51% of all regional prospective utility-scale solar and wind projects slated to come online by 2030. The other 49% is located in Southwest Asia and North Africa, particularly Morocco and Western Sahara, where projects are generally early stage or associated with greater risk.

The amount of capacity under development is insufficient for meeting established regional clean energy targets,² but governments have rolled out ambitious policies, programs, and strategies in their energy transitions. In particular, Spain and Egypt provide unique case studies in their approaches to their energy transitions, with both countries seeing the greatest prospective renewable capacity in their respective subregions.

Spain’s renewable boom is providing tangible benefits for households

Spain has 108.8 GW of prospective utility-scale solar capacity and 56.5 GW of prospective wind, according to GEM’s Global Solar Power Tracker and Global Wind Power Tracker, which survey all renewable projects that have been announced, entered pre-construction, or begun construction. According to Spain’s latest updates to its National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan, the country aims to reach 76 GW of utility-scale (including 19 GW of self-consumption) and thermal solar and 62 GW of wind capacity by 2030. Contingent upon the pace of commissioning for these projects, Spain therefore has enough operational and prospective capacity to surpass national wind installation targets by about 40% and solar targets by nearly 100%.

Spain already has 8.4 GW of utility-scale solar and wind in construction—about 5% of its total proposed capacity (165.3 GW). While the majority of proposed projects are currently in the pre-construction phase (132.0 GW), these projects have typically secured government approval or financing and are on track for completion. Compared to the rest of Europe, Spain ranks first in both prospective and operational utility-scale solar capacity; third in prospective wind, behind the United Kingdom and Sweden; and second in operational wind, behind Germany.

Just four autonomous communities account for 65% of all solar and wind additions in Spain expected to come online in the coming years. Castilla y León looks to increase its utility-scale solar and wind capacity nearly four-fold, from 9.5 GW to 35.7 GW. The region began producing renewable energy comparatively early, installing its first wind turbine in 1998. It has since developed more than 600 solar and wind projects that have shaped the landscape. Even now, Castilla y León has the most prospective capacity with 27.1 GW of utility-scale solar and 8.5 GW of wind. After Castilla y León, the planned renewable expansion is greatest in Castilla-La Mancha (26.1 GW), Andalucía (23.2 GW), and Aragón (21.6 GW). But, in terms of currently operating utility-scale solar and wind, Castilla-La Mancha still leads with 12.0 GW in operation, followed closely by Andalucía with 11.9 GW. 

Spain has experienced two periods of rapid growth in solar and wind capacity, the first between 2008 and 2014, and the second from 2019 to the present. Red Eléctrica, Spain’s partly state-owned transmission system operator, reported an addition of 6 GW solar and 1.3 GW wind capacity to the grid in 2024. The Sigma (Reposal) solar farm (189 MW) and the first two phases of the Canteras wind farm (100 MW) are among the utility-scale solar and wind projects commissioned that year, followed by the Castano solar farm (116.6 MW) and the Guindalera wind farm (100 MW) coming online in 2025.

Spain demonstrates how renewable energy development can create immediate and tangible benefits for consumers. Recent analysis by Ember estimates that the average Spanish household saves about 19%, or EUR 10, every month on their electricity bills from renewables stabilizing electricity market prices. Investments in domestic electricity, particularly in cheap solar and wind, have shielded consumers from price spikes resulting from fuel disruptions. Furthermore, the near-total blackout experienced by the Iberian Peninsula in April 2025, coupled with ENTSO-E’s understanding of the event as published in its final investigative report, has encouraged greater wind and solar buildout. 

While Egypt aims to leverage green hydrogen generation, fossil fuels persist

Egypt has become North Africa’s leader in prospective wind and utility-scale solar, with nearly 100 GW in development.

GEM’s most recent Wind and Solar Power Tracker releases reveal shifting dynamics in North Africa. As of February 2026, Egypt’s installed wind and solar capacity is about 6.3 GW, almost seven percent of the country’s total installed capacity, though the 94.6 GW of in-development capacity highlights the incredible role that renewables will play in the country’s future. Of this capacity, 49% (46.7 GW) is utility-scale solar and 51% (47.9 GW) is wind. Only about a quarter, or 22.9 GW, has a projected date of commercial operation by the end of the decade. Given this, the country’s prospective capacity is theoretically large enough to surpass its 2030 renewable installation target of 22 GW with wind and solar alone, though national definitions of renewables include hydropower as well. 

Since 2022, Egypt has set aside nearly 42,000 square kilometers of land for renewables and electricity generation, particularly in support of hydrogen development. Currently, an estimated 37.7 GW of prospective wind and utility-scale solar is associated with hydrogen production, supported by efforts initiated by Egypt’s National Clean Hydrogen Program. Unlike hydrogen projects sited in other parts of North Africa, at least one of Egypt’s largest proposed green hydrogen projects has received an official offtake agreement and begun partial operations.

GEM’s previous analysis identified the lack of offtake agreements as a critical barrier to the continued development of green hydrogen in Africa. The land allocations are distributed across the country, though plots in the Red Sea and Suez Governorates are expected to house more than 15 GW of wind and solar. This follows existing patterns of renewable development, given that about 80 GW of both operational and planned wind and solar is concentrated across six governorates: Aswan (4.8 GW), Cairo (4.6 GW), Red Sea (6.5 GW), Sohag (28.0 GW), South Sinai (13.7 GW), and Suez (21.6 GW).

Besides wind and solar, Egypt expects to operationalize nearly 5 GW of nuclear capacity this decade. An additional 2.6 GW of oil and gas is currently under construction, though most of this capacity lacks a projected operational date. Despite efforts to rapidly expand wind and solar development, the Government of Egypt has expressed interest in expanding exploration and oil and gas drilling, especially, but not exclusively, in the Mediterranean. In support of these efforts, government leadership has cleared all debts to oil and gas companies, about USD 6.1 billion, or approximately 5% of Egypt’s estimated total investment cost (described in Challenges: Costs and finance below). 

This capacity will be supported by institutional financing mechanisms, grid upgrades, and transmission expansion. The Nexus of Water, Food, and Energy coordinates stakeholders and mobilizes capital in service of national climate goals; the Energy Pillar aims to secure USD 10 billion in private sector investments to help integrate 10 GW of renewables into the national grid and retire 5 GW of fossil fuels by 2028. Further, the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company is in the midst of a grid infrastructure overhaul to address peak load, minimize transmission losses, and better integrate renewables. International support pledges for this initiative have reached more than USD 500 million. An additional EUR 690 million in loans and grants was allocated in June 2026 by the European Investment Bank and the European Commission to modernize Egypt’s grid in preparation for greater renewable integration. In terms of regional transmission, Egypt is slated for new interconnections to Türkiye, Jordan, Cyprus, Greece, and Libya, which would increase regional reliability and electrical supply stability.

Widely understood challenges may boost innovation and collaboration

Transmission and interconnection capacity, access to finance, and permitting timelines all present challenges to widespread rollout of wind and solar capacity. Continued collaboration across Mediterranean countries can address these complex challenges facing the region’s energy transition and create opportunities for greater resilience, investment, and reform.

Interconnection

Despite significant development and progress in recent years, existing interconnection and transmission infrastructure is insufficient, sometimes unstable, and difficult to synchronize. This, in turn, makes ultimate delivery of clean power to population centers significantly more challenging. Furthermore, curtailment is commonplace, particularly in Greece and Spain, so transmission development is of utmost priority in the Mediterranean’s energy transition.

The region has three primary frameworks and associations of network operators that exist to coordinate electricity transmission and exchanges: Med-TSO, ENTSO-E, and TEN-E. 

The Association of the Mediterranean System Operators, or Med-TSO, coordinates regional³ development as it pertains to grid operability. As of 2025, Med-TSO’s network covered an estimated 8.7 million sqkm, delivering more than 700 GW to 536 million end users. In its 2022 Ten-Year Network Development Plan, Med-TSO outlines several renewable energy installation targets in the coming decades, in line with 19 potential transmission projects focused on reinforcing the existing grid as well as improving reliability through new interconnections.

Further, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) produces 10-year network development plans (TYNDP) to “support and complement” individual grid development plans produced by member countries.⁴ In doing so, coordinated network development plans can help reduce costs and maximize security. Prior to the publication of its most recent TYNDP, ENTSO-E solicited stakeholder feedback to understand public opinion earlier in planning, thus reducing future impediments to project acceptance.

Finally, the Trans-European Networks for Energy (TEN-E) is a policy and regulatory instrument for improving cohesion across European energy systems. Its work is cross-cutting, including streamlining permitting procedures for member nations, constructing and strengthening offshore grid capacity, and solidifying support for renewable and low-carbon energy. Updated iterations include new priority corridors and thematic areas. Current priority projects relevant to the Mediterranean are 1) South and East offshore grids, which call for continued diversification and strengthening of oil and gas infrastructure, as well as greater coordination on offshore wind, ocean energy, and grid development; and 2) South and West offshore grids, which will involve greater interconnection between the Iberian Peninsula and neighbors, as well as accelerated development of offshore renewable energy, associated transmission infrastructure, and renewable hydrogen.

Costs and finance

While the cost of renewable energy has dropped dramatically, significant capital is required to see full commissioning and expansion of the existing project pipeline. 

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) estimates global total installation costs (TIC) for different generation types: solar PV (USD 667/kW), concentrated solar power (USD 2418/kW), onshore wind (USD 976/kW), and offshore wind (USD 2931/kW). IRENA also provides TIC averages by region.⁵ Using these values, geographic designations from GEM databases, and the global averages for concentrated solar power and offshore wind (no regional averages presented), the Mediterranean’s prospective wind and solar projects would require an estimated USD 792 billion to meet total installation costs. Other estimates demonstrate how the magnitude of financing needs differs across the region: the Eastern Mediterranean needs an estimated USD 300 billion by 2030 for its energy transition, and North Africa will require USD ~89 billion to meet 2050 targets. Access to finance also varies significantly; in general, African nations experience a greater investment burden compared to Europe, due in large part to perceived credit risk. 

Broadly, international finance for renewable energy has grown, though the large majority of global investments is concentrated in China, Europe, and North America. In 2024, only USD 21 billion of the global renewable energy investments was spent in the Southwest Asia and North Africa, representing 2.6%. At the same time, USD 137 billion (17%) was spent in Europe. This disparity persists, though Southwest Asian and North African nations collectively saw a 62% increase in investments from 2022/23 to 2024.

Existing partnerships are structured to increase flows of finance throughout the Mediterranean and can be leveraged in support of the energy transition. One such partnership is the European Neighbourhood Policy, which aims to bridge the European Union with nearby countries in North Africa, Southwest Asia, and Eastern Europe. The Southern Neighbourhood established an Agenda for the Mediterranean containing five policy areas: 1) human development, good governance, and rule of law; 2) resilience, prosperity, and digital transition; 3) peace and security; 4) migration and mobility; and 5) green transition. Between 2007 and 2020, the European Union has allocated EUR 20.5 billion to the Southern Neighbourhood region, with an additional EUR 12 billion allocated by the EU from 2021 to 2027. These investments are used for a slew of development projects, including climate resilience and clean energy.

Newer partnerships, like the Pact for the Mediterranean, build upon these efforts and are designed to encourage greater coordination. Launched in late 2025, the Pact convenes the European Commission with countries of the Southern Mediterranean on a range of issues, including the proliferation of clean energy, heightened investment, and improved security within the region. The Pact has been approved by key decision-makers and acts as an overarching framework for North-South Mediterranean coordination. Action Plans are updated twice annually to outline key stakeholders, their deliverables, and subsequent funding needs to carry out the work. One of these workstreams is the Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy and Clean-Tech Cooperation Initiative (T-MED), an initiative to mobilize EUR 25 billion in service of 15 GW of new renewable energy capacity and the creation of 100,000 jobs by 2035. This initiative will also involve efforts to reform regulatory structures in partner countries to simplify complex permitting requirements, described below.

Permitting

Across the region, renewable energy permitting may take up to several years to complete or stop altogether due to socioeconomic or political pressure, creating an unstable and risky regulatory environment. Historically, energy and electricity permitting in the Mediterranean region has been piecemeal, with each state overseeing the regulatory process for projects in its boundaries. According to the European Commission:

Today, regulatory risk is the primary barrier to scaling renewable investment in the Mediterranean… investors face unclear grid connection procedures, delays of 24-48 months in permitting, non-cost-reflective tariffs and opaque subsidy regimes, unpredictable offtake frameworks and limited independence of regulators (if established).”

These challenges are surmountable through permitting and regulatory reforms, which are occurring both domestically and internationally across the region. As mentioned above, T-MED will involve regulatory reform to ultimately reduce permitting timelines by 30% between 2026 and 2030 through several strategies. In tandem with these efforts, in the past twelve months alone, a few Mediterranean nations, including Türkiye⁶, Greece⁷, and Spain⁸, have passed laws to streamline their permitting processes.

Permitting reforms have already seen some success. In Greece, for example, substantial reforms began in 2022 with the passage of Law 4951/2022, which reduced interconnection licensing timelines to 14 months (excluding environmental approval procedures) for electrical generation from renewables. From 2022 through 2025, Greek solar and wind generation grew by 3.5 GW and 0.9 GW, respectively. In 2024, Ember cited permitting reforms as a contributor to Greece’s recent acceleration in capacity additions.

Despite incredible progress, more is in the pipeline

Greater and deeper collaboration will be critical for addressing the persistent and emerging socioeconomic, environmental, and political challenges the Mediterranean will face. Spain and Egypt may lead on this front as well; for example, the two nations established new means for engagement with the 2025-2030 Partnership for Sustainable Development, signed by representatives from both nations in September 2025. With this partnership, Egypt and Spain will coordinate across a range of issues, including climate change adaptation, while ultimately trying to mutually boost sustainable economic development. Specifics on this partnership are sparse, but in its press release, the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation speculates that this effort will support increasing investment flows from Spain to Egypt. These efforts are another in a long string of collaborations occurring throughout the Mediterranean. 

Not all technologies make sense for all states and areas; whereas some countries, like Spain, may focus on a mix of small- and large-scale wind and solar to meet consumer power needs, Egypt’s investment in green hydrogen generation suggests greater emphasis on industrial decarbonization. For all countries, increased collaboration across the Mediterranean may allow for improved resilience to shocks, create new and unique chances for development, and address persistent inequities in access to clean power sources. By leveraging the inherently cooperative nature of COP31, decision-makers have a timely and powerful opportunity to protect, uplift, and strengthen the Mediterranean.