Newly-opened coal mine capacity in 2024 hit the lowest level in a decade, but the downturn could be short-lived due to a robust slate of planned projects that would jeopardise global targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new report from Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
Data in the Global Coal Mine Tracker show production capacity at newly operating mines totalled 105 million tonnes (Mt) in 2024, marking the lowest level since 2014 and a 46% decline from 193 Mt in 2023.
The decline is largely attributed to India and China, where the slowdown was marked by delays in expansion approvals, the inherently lengthy nature of coal mine development phases, and a potential easing of supply pressures following a surge in capacity additions over the previous two years.
However, coal developers are once again ramping up production plans, pursuing over 850 new mines, expansions, and recommission projects across 30 countries. Thirty-five mine extension projects are also under consideration.
Nearly 90% of this proposed capacity is located within just a few countries. China leads by a wide margin, accounting for 1,350 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of proposed capacity, with most projects concentrated in the country’s north and northwest.
India follows with 329 Mtpa, nearly half of which is being developed by state-owned Coal India. Australia ranks third with 165 Mtpa, while Russia and South Africa also host significant developments, at approximately 98 Mtpa and 73 Mtpa, respectively.
In total, 2,270 Mtpa of coal mine capacity is under development worldwide, posing a significant risk of increased methane emissions, a potent greenhouse gas with over 80 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period.
The report estimates 15.7 Mt of methane could be released annually if all proposed coal mining projects are developed, surpassing the total annual greenhouse gas emissions of Japan, one of the world’s top ten emitters.
Without abatement measures, methane emissions from proposed coal mines would add to the already substantial emissions from existing operations—currently estimated by GEM at 58.9 Mt annually—bringing total emissions to a level comparable to the annual greenhouse gas output of the United States, the world’s second-largest emitter.
This rise in proposed coal mine capacity also contradicts scenarios from international bodies to cut mine output in order to align with the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
The International Energy Agency and United Nations have both proposed cuts to production at coal mines ranging from 39% to 75% by 2030, compared to 2020 production levels of roughly 7,607 Mt. The current pipeline of coal mines in development would only widen this gap.
