Key points
- Coal, oil, and gas capacity in the BRICS is set to fall below 50% total power capacity by the end of this year.
- Wind and utility-scale solar capacity in development across BRICS is double the amount of coal, oil, and gas power capacity.
- BRICS countries have enough renewables projects in development to nearly triple such capacity by 2030.
- Founded in 2009 by its namesake countries Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the BRICS group of major-emerging economies expanded to include South Africa in 2010. Its membership in early 2024 expanded to include Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Ethiopia, and Egypt. The bloc now produces more than a third of global GDP and is home to roughly half of the world’s population and CO₂ emissions.
Fossil capacity is set to drop below half of the power capacity mix in the BRICS bloc for the first time ever this year, signaling an important milestone in the clean energy transition for countries that still host the vast majority of the world’s coal power, finds a new report from Global Energy Monitor.
An analysis of data in the Global Integrated Power Tracker shows 72 gigawatts (GW) of fossil capacity in the BRICS scheduled to come online in 2024. Even in the unlikely case that a further 88 GW under construction without a known target start date also comes online, this total would still not exceed non-fossil additions already built in 2024: 190 GW of non-fossil capacity additions have already come online this year in China, India, and Brazil alone.
This would bring the total non-fossil capacity operating in the BRICS to 2,289 GW versus at most 2,245 GW fossil capacity. For comparison, the European Union reached 50% non-fossil share at the start of the 2010s, and the G7 hit parity last year.
Capacity refers to the maximum amount of electricity that can be produced at any one time, and generation is the amount of electricity that is actually generated over a period of time.
In recent years, the share of fossil fuels has been on the decline in most BRICS countries, with China leading the group, as its share of fossil-fueled capacity has fallen twice that of other BRICS countries over the last five years.
This sea change is thanks in part to the vast pipeline of wind and utility-scale solar capacity in development — projects that have been announced or are in the pre-construction and construction phases — which now outpaces fossils by two to one.
Wind and utility-scale solar projects in development total 1,550 GW across the BRICS group. Adding in-development hydropower to this figure sees the capacity for in-development fossil-fueled projects in the BRICS outnumbered by nearly three to one.
The impressive pace of non-fossil additions also means that BRICS countries have enough renewables projects in development to nearly triple such capacity by 2030.
The target to triple total global renewables capacity by 2030, agreed at COP28, is considered one of the most important levers for reducing emissions and keeping the 1.5 degree-aligned pathway alive.
If the 326 GW of wind and utility-scale solar capacity additions in 2023 continued to 2030, the BRICS group would see total renewable capacity increase by more than two and a half times. Furthermore, the sum of the BRICS' in-development renewables projects due for completion by 2030 is 2,276 GW, or around 95% of the additional utility-scale renewable capacity estimated as necessary to achieve the global tripling target.
Despite fossil-fueled power capacity losing ground in the BRICS’ power mix, virtually all members are building additional coal, oil, or gas plants. GEM data show all BRICS group countries, save Ethiopia, with fossil-fueled power projects in development. If built, fossil fuels projects in development would increase operating coal and oil and gas capacity in the BRICS groups by 36% and 53%, respectively.
James Norman, Project Manager for the Global Integrated Power Tracker, said, “The BRICS bloc is at a watershed moment. The clean energy transition really is happening everywhere. Still BRICSs are some of the only countries in the world planning new coal projects, which would undermine the impressive progress to date in cleaning up their energy systems.”
