GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Power dominate the gas turbine market with nearly two-thirds of the world’s capacity under construction, signaling a big bet on the future of hydrogen in the energy transition, despite questions about the technology’s suitability for decarbonization, according to new data from Global Energy Monitor.
Data in the Global Oil and Gas Plants Tracker show 175 gigawatts (GW) of gas turbine capacity under construction, and GE Vernova leads the global market with almost 55 GW. Much of this capacity is located in Asia, where GE Vernova has a 38% share of Asia’s turbine market, followed by Mitsubishi with 17%, and then Siemens Energy at 16%.
While gas power plants can use a variety of technologies, plants that use turbines account for the majority of capacity and are increasingly viewed as capable of blending hydrogen to reduce emissions of fossil gas power.
Turbine manufacturers have focused their research on developing advanced turbines that can support flexible power generation and are capable of burning hydrogen, seeking to become linchpins of the energy transition.
However, a lack of hydrogen supply, pipeline infrastructure, and storage capacity for hydrogen are significant and costly barriers to overcome. In addition, due to its lower energy content, even using green hydrogen in power production provides little emissions benefit until it is blended at high levels.
For example, a 30% hydrogen blend by volume achieves a 12% reduction in CO2 emissions and a 75% hydrogen blend only reaches a 50% emissions decrease.
According to GEM data, roughly half of turbines in gas-fired plants under construction (82 GW) are capable of blending up to 50% hydrogen, indicating that emissions reductions from the deployment of this technology may not be as effective as hoped for.
Investments in hydrogen for the energy sector may also impinge on funding for renewables, which are widely viewed as more effective and efficient in decarbonizing the energy sector.
Jenny Martos, Project Manager for the Global Oil and Gas Plants Tracker at Global Energy Monitor, said, “Gas turbine manufacturers are gambling on gas remaining a significant part of the future energy mix by continuing to invest in hydrogen technology. But they’ve misread the market before and may once again be making a bad bet.”
