31 GW of captive coal is jeopardizing Indonesia's economic and emissions goals
Indonesia’s operational and planned captive coal capacity now triples the nation’s 2023 base capacity, exceeds that of Australia’s current total coal fleet, and nearly ties with the entire coal capacity of Germany.
According to the latest analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM), Indonesia’s operational and planned captive coal – or industrial coal power not connected to the national grid – now reaches 31 GW.
The 31 GW capacity comprises 19.3 GW in operation, 3.6 GW of captive coal power plants in construction, and an additional 8.16 GW capacity expansion in planning. Meanwhile, the JETP thematic report for captive study that was released in November last year presents an inconsistent baseline by tabulating 4.45 GW of planned capacity but citing only 3.1 GW in its text, while omitting all announced projects.
These captive projects are also shielded by regulatory loopholes in Indonesia’s Presidential Regulation No. 112 of 2022 (PERPRES 112/2022), which grants exemptions to national strategic projects. This points to a critical lack of oversight as there is currently no public evidence or monitoring framework to verify the mandated 35% emissions reduction required for captive units.
The omission of significant captive coal capacity from official JETP assessments, combined with regulatory loopholes, risks locking Indonesia into a high-emission trajectory and creating stranded assets that could undermine national economic competitiveness for decades.
Between GEM’s releases for July 2024 and July 2025, captive coal accounted for about 80% of all new coal additions in Indonesia, pushing the sector's total to 19.3 GW. This growth is geographically concentrated in the nickel hubs of Central Sulawesi and North Maluku, which have seen capacity expand 2.25-fold since 2023.
CREA’s analysis on the implications of Indonesia’s decisions on coal transition pathways shows that the current coal trajectory would cost human lives and heavy economic burden, as the exclusion of captive units from national retirement targets is projected to cause 27,000 additional air pollution-related deaths and a USD 20 billion cumulative economic burden before the final decommissioning of the fleet. Moreover, a CREA study focused on nickel processing hubs shows that while the industry peaks in its fifth year, the ecological collapse by the eighth year begins to drastically erode total economic output. Air pollution alone in these regions is set to cause 5,000 annual deaths and a USD 3.42 billion yearly economic burden by 2030, while environmental degradation is expected to result in USD 235 million in losses for local farmers and fishermen over the next 15 years. And as global markets pivot toward green-certified minerals, failure to decarbonise Indonesia’s industrial base could jeopardize its position in global supply chains and lead to exclusion under international carbon-based standards and trade measures.
Katherine Hasan, Analyst at CREA: "Indonesia’s energy landscape is undergoing a radical split in which a stagnant national grid is being eclipsed by an explosive, nickel-driven captive coal surge. Explicitly integrating captive coal units into national 2040 phase-out targets along with establishing a public monitoring framework are essential to enforcing the 35% emissions reduction mandate. If the government wants to achieve its Golden Indonesia 2045 aim, it must acknowledge and embrace the profound economic and environmental benefits of an ambitious early retirement schedule for its on-grid and captive coal fleets."
Data transparency is a fundamental first step towards a just and accountable energy transition. It is impossible to plan for the replacement of coal plants with renewable energy alternatives without first understanding the existing and planned coal capacity landscape. This is especially true for Indonesia’s captive coal fleet, which has experienced strong, unabated growth in the last several years. Knowing where these plants are, their size, and their industrial purpose is critical to fully incorporating captive coal into long-term transition planning and effectively phasing out Indonesia’s coal power, not just that on the state grid.
Lucy Hummer, Senior Researcher at Global Energy Monitor
*EDITORIAL NOTE, 4 February 2026 — A footnote has been added to page 18 of this report to clarify that the JETP Captive Power Thematic Report included the reasoning behind differing cited captive coal power capacity totals. Specifically, 1.1 GW shifted from permitted to under construction, leading to a tally of 5.5 GW under construction and 3.1 GW planned at the time of release. Consequently, JETP scenario modeling proceeded with these figures while outlining an Asset-Level Alternatives Analysis for 4.452 GW across ten projects. This update reflects the dynamic nature of asset development, and was made following commentary submitted by a member of the JETP Captive Power Study Thematic Report editorial board.
