Key points
- The steel sector is set to reach just shy of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) target that 37% of global capacity relies on lower-emissions electric arc furnaces (EAF) by 2030.
- Reaching this milestone will depend on India, which has the largest development pipeline of steelmaking capacity globally but which overwhelmingly will rely on higher-emissions, coal-based production methods unless its plans change.
- Australia and Brazil are in the driver’s seat to lead green ironmaking due to large iron ore reserves and renewable energy potential.
A key indicator of greening one of the world’s most polluting industries is within reach but will depend on whether India pursues cleaner production methods, finds Global Energy Monitor’s annual report on the global iron and steel fleet.
Since 2021, GEM has published one of the most comprehensive reviews of iron and steelmaking capacity globally, with the aim of documenting each operating asset as well as capacity in development — projects that have been announced or are under construction.
New data in the Global Iron and Steel Tracker show that by 2030, the proportion of global steelmaking capacity relying on lower-emissions EAF is expected to reach 36%, or 868 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), just shy of the IEA’s 37% target. While the proportion of steelmaking capacity using EAF has gradually increased from the beginning of the decade, coal-based steelmaking continues to dominate.
This trend is most visible in India, which plans on doubling its steelmaking capacity by 2030. India is now responsible for over two-fifths of global steelmaking capacity in development (352 mtpa) compared to just 140 mtpa in China.
India also accounts for over half of coal-based steelmaking capacity in development (200 mpta). India’s steel industry remains the most carbon-intensive, emitting about one-fifth to a quarter more CO2 per tonne than China.
While India is rapidly announcing development plans, much of this capacity has yet to break ground. Capacity in development increased by over a third — from 258 mpta in 2024 to 352 mpta in 2025 — but construction has started on only 28 mpta, or just 8%, indicating that its ambitious growth plans are more talk than action thus far.
This year’s report also incorporates for the first time data from the Global Iron Ore Mine Tracker, which documents the fundamental raw material for primary steel production. Around 98% of all iron ore mined goes into steel production, and iron ore can be directed toward green ironmaking projects in order to strategically propel the net-zero transition.
The report shows that global iron ore production hit 2,059 million tonnes last year, with Australia and Brazil accounting for 43% and 21% worldwide production, respectively. This concentration will allow the two countries to have an opportunity to influence green steel development.
With ever growing renewable energy resources, both Australia and Brazil are well positioned to produce green hydrogen and become leaders in green ironmaking. Additionally Australia and Brazil may develop strong trade ties with booming steel industries like India in order to meet the need for green steel materials in countries with excess ore demands.
Astrid Grigsby-Schulte, Project Manager of the Global Iron and Steel Tracker, said, “India is now the bellwether of global steel decarbonisation. If the country does not increase its plans for green steel production, the entire sector will miss an important milestone. So goes India, so goes the world.”
