LNG buildout undermines energy transition goals
At least nine major liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal projects and expansions are planned to begin operations between 2026 and 2030 in Colombia. If all major projects were developed, including a proposed expansion to the country’s single operating import terminal, Colombia would have the capacity to import around 2,500 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of LNG by 2030, more than twice what the government projects gas demand to be at that time.
With a new government set to take office imminently, Colombia finds itself at a crossroads: This buildout would unnecessarily hitch the country to a costly and insecure source of energy at a time when Colombia is showcasing its climate credentials on the international stage.
Sustaining 2,500 MMcf/d of import throughput would require a near-continuous supply of LNG carriers, with a vessel delivered approximately every day and a half, or around 20 ships per month. Ensuring this volume and reliability has historically pushed buyers toward long-term supply contracts, even though a growing spot market might now offer more flexibility than in the past. Should Colombia lock in such contracts, it would undercut its own framing of gas as a short-term solution and slow the country’s transition away from fossil fuels.
Although many of these proposals are underway, only two are under construction and no others have reached Final Investment Decision (FID), leaving a meaningful window to avoid locking in more capacity than the country’s energy demand genuinely needs.
LNG projects overshoot Colombia’s energy needs
Planned LNG import capacity exceeds what Colombia’s projected gas demand would require. The Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética (UPME) estimates that, under normal conditions, gas demand will be around 1,000 MMcf/d by 2030, while Colombia’s ongoing gas deficit is projected to increase from 200 MMcf/d to 500 MMcf/d by the same year. Based on available data, proposed LNG import capacity could far exceed the country’s reported supply deficit.
Simultaneously, Colombia’s gas demand has been falling sharply, with industrial consumption reportedly decreasing by 28% in the first four months of 2026. Approximately 50% of that demand has shifted to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and 20% has shifted to coal. Some industrial users have also turned to sugar cane bagasse and fuel oil. These dynamics, intensified by the ongoing conflict in Iran, reflect prolonged domestic gas shortages due to declining production, elevated LNG prices, limited alternative energy infrastructure, and exposure to volatile global gas markets.
Oversaturating Colombia’s market with LNG infrastructure risks creating stranded assets and deepening dependence on volatile imported gas. If high LNG costs or supply disruptions persist, this could push consumers further toward higher-emitting and cheaper alternatives like coal, LPG, and fuel oil. At the same time, it could divert resources from effective and equitable energy pathways that align with a just fossil fuel phaseout like renewables, electrification, and energy efficiency.
Currently, Colombia has one operating LNG import terminal in Cartagena, SPEC LNG. This terminal provides around 425 MMcf/d, with its capacity expected to increase by 58 MMcf/d by 2027. With this expansion, SPEC alone at that time will be able to provide almost half of Colombia’s total gas demand.
Other projects in advanced planning stages, like Puerto Bahía LNG terminal or Coveñas FSRU, are being fast-tracked to provide 400 MMcf/d by 2029 and 2030, respectively. Either of these import terminals and the expansion of SPEC’s existing infrastructure alone would nearly meet Colombia’s total demand by 2030.
Colombia’s near-term needs could be met without compromising its energy transition pathway
Earlier this year, in April, Colombia co-hosted the First International Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels. The meeting yielded a comprehensive roadmap that shows the country could reduce fossil fuel dependence and emissions by 90% by 2050, while generating economic savings in the long run.
The country’s roadmap suggests that by applying energy efficiency measures, coupling renewable generation with energy storage, and switching to electric technologies, the new administration could further shift Colombia’s electricity supply to renewables. Prioritizing temporary and flexible LNG import capacity, while shifting future investment toward renewables and related infrastructure and management, could reduce Colombia’s exposure to volatile LNG markets and support its long-term energy sovereignty.
However, despite its commitment to advancing renewables and its international climate leadership, Colombia remains heavily dependent on fossil fuel infrastructure and the revenues it generates, including royalties on oil and gas production. This tension is increasingly visible in the gas sector, illustrated by the country’s planned buildout of LNG import infrastructure to address a worsening domestic gas deficit.
The next administration will shape how this tension is managed going forward. Proposals to reactivate oil and gas production, including through fracking, aim to respond to concerns about energy security and public revenues. But if these proposals move ahead without reference to the transition roadmap, they could set back the energy transition shift, while reducing the long-term savings and energy security the roadmap prioritizes.
In a country largely dependent on hydropower and thermoelectric energy, ensuring energy security has become a priority in the midst of diminishing domestic gas production, geopolitical tensions, and a strong El Niño event, which is anticipated to exacerbate the dry conditions negatively impacting hydropower. With a new government taking office in the next couple of months, Colombia finds itself at a crossroads, facing an opportunity to meet near-term energy security needs without overbuilding LNG infrastructure.
1 This figure excludes Andes Energy Terminal, because its planned 2024 start year appears outdated, and the second phase of Puerto Brisa LNG Terminal, because no start year has been found for that phase. If both projects are included, the total planned import capacity for Colombia would be around 3,000 MMcf/d. However, the 2,500 MMcf/d figure aligns more closely with reported figures from other sources.
2 Today's standard LNG carrier, a 170,000 m³ membrane-type ship, holds roughly 3,700 MMcf of LNG. At 2,500 MMcf of demand per day, that works out to a delivery needed approximately every day and a half.
