The report finds:
- Southeast Asia’s gas buildout shifts at the edges, but more than 100 GW of power remains in development. GEM identified more than 100 GW of gas power capacity in development in May 2024, compared with roughly 106 GW still planned. Over that period, individual projects have moved into and out of development, but the overall scale of planned gas-power capacity has remained above 100 GW.
- The region has planned more LNG import capacity even as the risks of reliance on LNG have become harder to ignore. LNG import capacity in development has risen from about 47 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2024 to roughly 70 mtpa today. The continued expansion of LNG import infrastructure risks deepening exposure to the same supply disruptions and price volatility the conflict has brought to the fore.
- Domestic gas may cushion the shock in some countries, but it won’t remove the region’s growing exposure to imported LNG. GEM identifies at least 20 fields that could add around 62 billion cubic metres per year of production capacity by 2035, but new supply takes years to develop and may not even supply domestic power markets. The short-term pursuit of domestic gas offers no quick or assured fallback for countries exposed to tightening global LNG markets.
Warda Ajaz, Project Manager of the Asia Gas Tracker at Global Energy Monitor, said, “The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is stress-testing Southeast Asia’s plans for gas expansion, but its effects are not playing out uniformly across the region. While some countries appear to be moving away from gas, others seem to be pressing ahead. The consequences of the conflict have not yet translated into a fundamental change in Southeast Asia’s infrastructure trajectory. But the conflict has exposed the fragility of some of the assumptions supporting that expansion: import capacity does not guarantee secure LNG supply, access to LNG does not guarantee affordability, and domestic gas provides a meaningful buffer only where sufficient supply is already available.”
