The Azeri government has suggested a rollout of up to 8 gigawatts (GW) of wind and utility-scale solar capacity by 2030. But data in the Global Integrated Power Tracker show no further projects beyond those expected for completion by 2027.
Around 1,000 MW are expected to be brought online by Abu Dhabi’s Masdar, together with Azeri state oil company SOCAR, including the Bilasuvar (445 MW) and Neftchala (315 MW) solar plants, as well as the Absheron-Garadagh wind farm (240 MW). Saudi energy group ACWA leads the Area 1 / Khizi 3 wind farm (240 MW), while three additional solar projects account for a further 440 MW.
These 2 GW additions are just sufficient for achieving the country's stated 30% renewable share by 2030, a target first announced five years ago and only a marginal 10% increase to existing, Soviet-era hydropower capacity.
At the same time, the country is set to bring online its largest ever gas power plant by the end of this year, the 1.3 GW Mingecevir gas power station.
By global standards, Azerbaijan is a modest fossil fuel producer, pumping less than 1% of the world's oil and gas. However, fossil rents remain vital to the national economy, accounting for over 90% of all exports and half of the state budget.
Gas production, which Azerbaijan uses to power the twelve gas plants that provide over 90% of domestic electricity generation, has also seen a sevenfold ramp-up over the last two decades.
The report also shows that all eight countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia — Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan — are developing additional coal, oil, or gas plant capacity at a greater rate than renewables.
More than three times as much fossil capacity is under construction in the Caucasus and Central Asia region than from wind and utility-scale solar. Total capacity under construction from wind and utility-scale solar in these countries totals 3.5 GW, less than a third of the 12 GW for projects fueled by coal, oil, or gas. In total, 7.8 GW of coal power capacity is in development — projects that are announced or in the pre-construction and construction phases — though only two projects, totalling 195 MW, are under construction in Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan is the only country covered in this report that is currently building coal capacity and one of just 22 countries around the world with new coal currently under active construction.
The 32 GW of fossil capacity in development eclipses the 26 GW of wind and utility-scale solar capacity across the region.
James Norman, Project Manager for the Global Integrated Power Tracker, said, “The integrity of Azerbaijan’s energy transition is in jeopardy. The country’s 2030 target is unambitious, and continuing to build oil and gas projects undoes any progress made elsewhere.”
