Copy
September 14, 2023
Issue 52  |  View Past Issues
Inside Gas
Published by Global Energy Monitor

Editor's Note

With high-level climate-related meetings looming over the next few months, the challenges that gas expansion poses to keeping global warming within 1.5 °C are being presented in increasingly stark fashion. New data from Global Energy Monitor show both how Asia — principally China — is driving the development of growing global gas-fired power plant capacity and how the Middle East and North Africa region, despite making reasonable strides recently to boost solar and wind capacity, still has a long way to go to get off gas. 

As the International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol predicts demand for oil, gas, and coal peaking by 2030, Oil Change International has issued its latest warning and reality check: just five global north “climate leader” countries have oil and gas production plans in the pipeline that would be responsible for more than half of the global sector’s CO2 pollution on course to blow us past 1.5, unless commitments and action are urgently stepped up. While much focus and effort continues to go into reforming multilateral institutions like the World Bank, to weaponize their financial power and influence for a global low-carbon revolution, a new report reveals how an arm of the Bank is getting away with increasing its support for oil and gas.

Grieg Aitken

Features

No let up in the Western majors’ Brussels and Washington lobbying efforts 

Recent lobbying disclosures capture only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to influencing efforts, but nonetheless reveal the pressure being piled on by the oil and gas industry across key pieces of legislation, climate-related policies, and new fossil fuel projects in Europe and the U.S., writes Deb Kelly in Energy Intelligence

Unpacking China’s 2023 Natural Gas Development Report

In the recently released eighth annual gas report, government agencies again stressed the importance of domestic production and long-term contracts for the world’s third-largest gas market but — for the first time — underlined China’s intention to supply more than 50% of its growing demand with domestic supplies, write Ziwei Zhang, Shangyou Nie, and Erica Downs for Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

Europe’s high gas prices have brought about reduced industrial output

Declining but still historically elevated gas prices are taking their toll on energy-intensive manufacturing, with significantly reduced EU gas consumption pointing to permanent deindustrialization unless prices fall significantly in the next couple of years, writes John Kemp in Reuters.

Trump official lined up to become head of powerful U.S. utility trade body

The Edison Electric Institute, which recently criticized Biden administration proposals to regulate greenhouse gases from power plants, has tapped Dan Brouillette to become its next CEO. The appointment of the fossil fuel advocate who served as Energy secretary in the Trump administration has sparked controversy in Washington, write Benjamin Storrow and Timothy Cama in E&E News.

Top News

U.S. leads the “planet wrecker” club’s oil and gas expansion plans — new report: Research from the campaign group Oil Change International (OCI) has warned that new oil and gas fields and fracking wells being planned for development by mid-century by just 20 countries threaten to unleash 173 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions, equivalent to the lifetime pollution of nearly 1,100 new coal plants. Lead by the U.S., which accounts for more than one-third of planned global oil and gas expansion through 2050, OCI’s data show that these “planet wrecker” countries alone would be responsible for nearly 90% of the CO2 pollution from hydrocarbon extraction unless they heed growing international calls to keep oil and gas in the ground. The report further calls out the hypocrisy of five self-proclaimed “climate leader” countries in the global north — the United States, Canada, Australia, Norway, and the United Kingdom — who are lining up 51% of the planned expansion from new oil and gas fields to 2050, despite having the greatest economic means and historical responsibility to rapidly phase out production. (Oil Change International [Pdf], The Guardian)

Asia is driving global gas and oil plant expansion despite price volatility, study finds: A new global survey of almost 12,000 gas- and oil-fired power plants from Global Energy Monitor has found that last year, projects in development increased by 13% to 783,000 megawatts (MW). Nearly two-thirds of this capacity increase for plants that have either been announced or are in the pre-construction and construction phases took place in Asia, principally in China and Southeast Asia, where 514,000 MW at an estimated cost of US$385 billion are in development. Counting construction starts on new gas and oil plants in 2022, GEM’s data show that 207,000 MW began to be built out, a 23% increase over 2021 with close to three-quarters of this located in Asia. Last year, the region suffered from volatile gas price swings that saw countries such as Bangladesh and Pakistan stop LNG importing, though the majority of the region’s new plant construction starts occurred in China. Overall, GEM’s data show that five countries — China, Brazil, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the U.S. — account for almost half of all capacity currently in development. (Global Energy Monitor [Pdf], Global Oil and Gas Plant Tracker)

“A SLAPP suit on steroids” — Mountain Valley Pipeline sues protestors, judge grants temporary injunctions: The Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) company is suing 41 people and two activist organizations to prevent them from entering construction sites for the US$6.6 billion gas project in Southwest Virginia, where work has been delayed at least a dozen times since early July. The company is also seeking more than US$4 million in damages from the defendants, who include the groups Appalachians Against Pipelines and Rising Tide North America. Referring to what are called Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation, Alan Graf, an attorney who has monitored pipeline protests as an observer with the National Lawyers Guild, called the legal move an intimidation tactic, describing it as “a SLAPP suit on steroids.” At an initial court hearing, Montgomery County Circuit Judge Robert Turk placed injunctions on six people, including three who were arrested in recent weeks after chaining themselves to heavy equipment. A senior pipeline executive testified that the direct costs of the protests for MVP are estimated at US$100,000, though Judge Turk has yet to address damages in the case, which continues. (The Roanoke Times, The Roanoke Times)

World Bank accused of boosting oil and gas deals through obscure financing channels: New research from the Germany-based campaign group Urgewald estimates that the World Bank — specifically its private finance arm, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) — significantly scaled up its support for the oil and gas sector in 2022 via US$3.7 billion in trade finance. A notoriously opaque form of financing, which has been ramped up rapidly by the IFC since 2019 to now account for more than 60% of its annual budget, trade finance relies on complex financial instruments such as guarantees designed to facilitate commercial transactions for governments and companies. Over 70% of IFC trade finance is given out in secret, according to Urgewald’s report, with the types of goods and businesses it is funding not even reported to the World Bank’s shareholders, most of the world’s governments. Amidst this level of non-disclosure, Urgewald’s estimate is based on the scouring available IFC data alongside projections based on IFC trade finance for oil and gas in the 2006–2012 period. The sector continues not to be on the IFC’s exclusion list for trade finance. Heike Mainhardt, the author of the research, said: “The new findings call into question the World Bank’s claims surrounding Paris-alignment and highlight the dire need for public disclosure of IFC trade finance transactions.” (urgewald [Pdf], The Guardian)

Vietnamese gas expansion ambitions attracting interest from Japan and Thailand: Some recent commentary has suggested that the Vietnam government’s new emphasis on gas and LNG in its national power plans has been experiencing teething problems over issues such as legal frameworks and financing sources. Nevertheless, talks have been entered into between Sumitomo Corporation, one of Japan’s largest trading houses, and PetroVietnam Gas on developing a collaboration on an LNG-to-power project chain in the Van Phong Economic Zone, located in Vietnam’s central coastal province of Khanh Hoa. Similar early-stage discussions have emerged between Thai energy developers Gulf Group and authorities in Vietnam’s Thanh Hóa Province. Plans were mooted, following a recent meeting, to develop an LNG terminal near the coast of Thanh Hóa as well as a liquefied petroleum gas thermal power plant. (Vietnam Investment Review, Newsbase)

Identity fraud uncovered in industry push for fracking in Ohio’s state parks: The Attorney General of the U.S. state of Ohio, Dave Yost, has launched a formal investigation into how the names of at least 38 people appeared — without their consent, according to a media investigation — in public comments sent to state regulators urging new oil and gas exploration using fracking in Ohio’s state parks and protected lands. The state’s Oil and Gas Land Management Commission is due to decide in the coming months on whether to free mineral rights under state land such as the Salt Fork State Park for leasing and bidding from oil and gas drillers. At issue is how dozens of form letters, drafted by the pro-oil and gas Consumer Energy Alliance (CEA) and sent to the regulators, bore the names of Ohians who told the news outlet Cleveland.com they didn’t knowingly authorize their names to be used on them. The Houston-based CEA, run by the public relations and lobbying firm HBW Resources, which is funded by its members including major oil and gas companies, strongly denies the allegations of wrongdoing. (Cleveland.com, Cleveland.com)

“Based only on today’s policy settings by governments worldwide — even without any new climate policies — demand for each of [coal, oil, and gas] is set to hit a peak in the coming years. This is the first time that a peak in demand is visible for each fuel this decade — earlier than many people anticipated,”

wrote Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, in the Financial Times ahead of next month’s release of the agency’s World Energy Outlook.

News

Algeria: As part of a US$40 billion investment plan for the period 2023–2027, state-owned oil company Sonatrach says it discovered ten new oil and gas deposits in the first half of this year.

Argentina: TotalEnergies has announced that it will start drilling at the US$700 million offshore Fenix gas field early next year, with production of 10 million cubic meters of gas per day (8% of Argentina’s total gas output) anticipated to begin by November. 

Germany: Greenpeace activists blockaded a ship carrying pipeline sections at the port of Mukran on the island of Rügen where a new LNG import terminal proposal continues to attract widespread opposition. 

Indonesia: Energy company Pertamina has signed a deal with Malaysia’s Bumi Armada to develop a floating LNG export terminal with feed gas to come from the Madura Gas Field and surrounding fields off East Java.

Iran: Construction work at the previously canceled 10.8 million tonnes per year (mtpa) Iran LNG export terminal project is reported to be almost 50% complete and on track for completion in mid-2025.

Poland: Orlen plans to start production at the 0.5 billion cubic meters per year Tommeliten Alpha field in the next few months, one of the company’s key expansion fields in the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

Russia: Novatek boss Leonid Mikhelson said that the first of three liquefaction trains at the Arctic LNG 2 export terminal will be operating at full 6 mtpa capacity in the first quarter of next year.   

Spain: Energy firms Naturgy and Repsol want to see the government boost its draft plan for a 2030 biogas production target. 

UK: Bernard Looney has resigned as CEO of BP for failing to fully disclose details of past personal relationships with colleagues, the company said. Chief Financial Officer Murray Auchincloss will step in as CEO on an interim basis.

UK: BP has received final government approval for the Murloch oil and gas field redevelopment in the central North Sea.

U.S.: A planned LNG export terminal in the state of New Jersey has suffered its latest setback following the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration’s suspension of the Trump-era “LNG by Rail” rule.

The Gas Graph


Via Global Energy Monitor, the Middle East and North Africa region raised renewables capacity by 57% to 19 gigawatts in the past year and a similar boost is likely again in 2024. However, the region still needs twenty times that amount of renewables — roughly 500 GW of solar and wind capacity — to replace existing gas-fired generation.

Companies + Markets

Traditional Custodian granted injunction against Woodside’s seismic testing at Scarborough project: Mardudhunera woman Raelene Cooper has been granted an injunction by the Federal Court of Australia that temporarily blocks Woodside Energy’s start-up of seismic testing on its A$16.5 billion (US$10 billion) Scarborough gas project off the coast of Western Australia. The decision followed an eleventh-hour intervention last week by the Environmental Defenders Office when Woodside gave notice that it intended to start the testing in an endangered whale habitat despite the fact that two legal challenges to the Australian regulator’s approval for the seabed blasting are ongoing, one from Ms Cooper and one from Greenpeace. The hearing for Cooper’s challenge has been brought forward to the end of this month. The injunction prevents Woodside from conducting Scarborough seismic testing until September 28. Australia’s largest pension fund, AustralianSuper, has also been criticized after analysis from campaign group Market Forces showed that it had recently signaled its “tacit approval” of Woodside’s oil and gas expansion strategy. AustralianSuper sided with Woodside during a recent unsuccessful shareholder revolt, which received backing from major global investors including BlackRock and Vanguard, over the company’s climate policies. (Environmental Defenders Office, WAtoday, The Guardian) 

Surprise Chinese LNG purchase announcement raises market eyebrows: In the biggest intervention by a state-owned Chinese importer to procure LNG from the spot market since February this year, Unipec, a trading arm of Chinese national oil company Sinopec, has issued a tender to buy up to 25 LNG cargoes from October 2023 to December 2024. The tender closes on September 15. While Chinese companies have been busy this year securing a range of long-term LNG supply contracts, LNG imports to the country have been sluggish despite rising from last year’s low levels resulting from the impact of Covid measures on demand. This sudden push for more short-term supply, including potentially five shipments in November and seven in December, may have ramifications for other importers in what remains a very delicately balanced global LNG market. (Bloomberg, Reuters)

North Africa will be Italy’s key gas supplier for years, says top Eni official: With multi-billion dollar investments planned for both gas exploration and low-carbon projects, Italy’s Eni sees Algeria, Egypt, and Libya as vital export countries over the next few years, according to its head of resources Guido Brusco. Algeria has already replaced Russia as Italy’s top gas supplier over the last year although, speaking to Reuters, Brusco insisted that 90% of the company’s gas production across Africa serves local markets. Despite Eni’s large expansion plans, Brusco was quoted as saying that while cleaner energy sources are developed, “it’s necessary to manage oil and gas reduction.” Several sub-Saharan countries, including Republic of Congo and Angola, may also have a growing role in the future, said the executive. (Reuters)

Escalating strike action and technical fault cause headaches for Chevron’s Australian operations: Initial short work interruption actions begun last week by workers at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG terminals have now moved into a two-week phase of 24-hour strikes. However, industry analysts maintain that preparatory measures taken by the U.S. company, including the use of some non-unionized workforce, should prevent output disruptions at the plants for several weeks. A technical fault affecting one of two production trains at Wheatstone has complicated the situation further for Chevron, which was forced to temporarily shut down 25% of the terminal’s LNG production. The company has applied to an Australian regulator, the Fair Work Commission, which is due to hold a hearing on September 22 to help resolve the dispute with unions. (Reuters, Reuters) 

U.S. back as world’s top LNG exporter: Data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) show that in the first six months of the year U.S. LNG exporters shipped an average of 11.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), outstripping export volumes from Australia (10.6 bcf/d) and Qatar (10.4 Bcf/d). This was mainly driven by the return to service of Freeport LNG, the U.S.’s second largest export terminal, with EU countries receiving 67% (7.7 Bcf/d) of total U.S. exports between January and June. The agency predicts export volumes reaching 13.15 Bcf/d in 2024. The EIA also projected that record annual U.S. gas production of 98.13 Bcf/d in 2022 is set to rise further to 102.69 Bcf/d by the end of this year and subsequently hit 104.93 Bcf/d in 2024. Domestic gas consumption is predicted to rise from a record 88.56 Bcf/d in 2022 to 89.72 Bcf/d in 2023 before falling to Bcf/d in 2024, according to the EIA. (Reuters, Reuters)

Ithaca Energy buys Shell’s stake in controversial Cambo field: UK-based Ithaca Energy is to take full ownership of the controversial Cambo field after agreeing to acquire Shell’s 30% stake in the second-largest undeveloped oil and gas discovery in the North Sea. Located 125-kilometers to the northwest of the Shetland Islands, Cambo is planned to have a 25-year operational life, though a final investment decision has yet to be taken alongside development approval from the North Sea Transition Authority. Sanctioning of the project is delayed though could happen next year. Shell had previously announced it was pulling out of Cambo citing poor project economics, though intense campaigning from activists is also thought to have influenced its exit decision. (Reuters)

Resources

Uncovering KKR’s Environmental Responsibility Gap, Americans for Financial Reform Education Fund, Global Energy Monitor, Private Equity Stakeholder Project, September 7, 2023. [Pdf]

This 24-page report spotlights three major U.S. LNG infrastructure investments entered into by private equity behemoth KKR and showcases a pattern of repeated environmental violations, failure to obtain community consent in low-income neighborhoods including majority Black, immigrant, and Indigenous communities, and a lack of accountable business practices.

Absolute Impact 2023: Progress on oil and gas emissions targets has stalled, Carbon Tracker Initiative, September 7, 2023. 

This 36-page annual assessment report into the emissions reduction commitments of the world’s largest publicly listed oil and gas companies has been expanded to include majority state-owned companies for the first time. It finds that emissions reductions pledges across the sector have largely stalled.

Underwriting our planet: how insurers can help address the crises in climate and biodiversity, WWF and Deloitte Switzerland, September 13, 2023. [Pdf]

This 78-page report describes what insurers need to do to fight the climate crisis, including an immediate exclusion of insurance services for the expansion of coal, oil, and gas and other severely damaging economic activities.