U.S. government poised to rethink public interest and climate implications of up to 17 LNG export projects: An official White House announcement on halting the approval process of the massive CP2 export terminal in Louisiana, and likely a string of other proposed export projects too, is expected in the coming days and looks set to delay key project decisions until after the U.S. election in November. Before then, though still unconfirmed, a review would begin into how the U.S. Department of Energy considers — or, to date, hasn’t considered — climate change, environmental justice, and domestic economic impacts when assessing new applications to export LNG to countries with which the U.S. does not have a free trade agreement. The Biden administration’s apparent rethink follows years of grassroots organizing against export terminal buildout, particularly in Louisiana and Texas. Coordination and campaigning, both nationwide and internationally, has also intensified over the last six months. Lobbying against the review from the LNG industry and associates, already voluble over the last week, has become even more shrill since The New York Times broke the news about an imminent White House announcement. Despite the fact that the U.S. has recently become the world’s biggest gas exporter, an elected Texas energy regulator condemned the potential pause on permitting and bellowed: “America becoming energy dominant again — like in 2019 — is the key to restoring global order, and that starts with a strong LNG export industry.” In a new report, U.S. NGOs exposed the industry’s continued myth-making that a pause in new project approvals would hammer Europe. Amid current and projected long-term declines in European gas demand, their research found that — standing at 18% — contracts agreed between European buyers and pending U.S. LNG facilities represent the smallest share when compared with Asia Pacific customers (30%) and portfolio buyers (52%). (Gas Outlook, Politico, Climate Insider Substack, Houston Chronicle,  Friends of the Earth, Public Citizen, BailoutWatch [Pdf], Railroad Commission of Texas)

Investigation reveals the latest murky gas tendering in South Africa: The tendering activities of the Petroleum Oil and Gas Corporation of South Africa (PetroSA) are once again in the spotlight amid concerns over the recent selection of an inexperienced finance company to play a key role in the expansion of PetroSA’s offshore gas assets and the rebuilding of critical gas infrastructure connected to the restart of the company’s Mossel Bay gas-to-liquids refinery. An investigation by the South African non-profit newsroom AmaBhungane describes not only a wide range of question marks hanging over the bona fides of businessman Lawrence Mulaudzi but also casts doubt on the ability of the company he runs — Equator Holdings — to bankroll an investment project that requires at least R21.6-billion (US$1.2 billion) in financing. In a labyrinthine tendering process that has unfolded over the last twelve months, AmaBhungane uncovered “scope creep,” whereby Equator, as set out in a draft contract, has not only been awarded responsibility for funding but also “all the design, engineering, procurement, construction, fitting, installation, testing activities, commissioning works and services” related to the refurbishment of an array of offshore and onshore gas infrastructure. While Mulaudzi may be looking to bring in Russian technical expertise, conditions contained in the draft agreement with PetroSA, if still accurate, give Equator three to six months to prove that it can deliver on both the technical side and the financing. (AmaBhungane)

New wave of insurgent attacks threatens Mozambique LNG restart: As speculation mounts over whether construction of TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project can recommence, and with the International Monetary Fund weighing in with an “early 2024” restart prediction, evidence has emerged of a recent escalation in attacks on civilians and armed forces by Islamic State insurgents in the region. A report from the widely respected Cabo Ligado conflict observatory has documented an upsurge in insurgent activities since December, noting that attacks increased earlier this month in areas 60 kilometers south of the LNG project’s construction site in Afungi. The observatory also said that Total has sent Jean-Christophe Rufin, a human rights expert, to Cabo Delgado province for the second time to report on security and human rights conditions as the company considers restarting the project. The United Nations’ Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that the recent attacks have displaced 1,800 people. The head of Mozambique’s army, Major General Tiago Nampele, commented in mid-December that the province was 90–95% secure and that conditions were safe for Total to restart the US$20 billion project. (Upstream [Paywall])

Doubts intensify over Cypriot LNG terminal after national audit office issues stinging report: Management of the €500 million (US$541 million) proposed floating LNG import terminal at the port of Vasilikos, the biggest-ever energy project undertaken in Cyprus, has been described as “tragic” by Cyprus’ Auditor General Odysseas Michaelides in a 150-page report that also describes potential “disciplinary or criminal responsibilities” on the part of Natural Gas Infrastructure Company (ETYFA), the project promoter. Pointing to ongoing delays and uncertainties hanging over the 2 million tonnes per annum project, which have so far resulted in cost overruns of at least €42 million, the report details alleged irregularities surrounding the 2018–19 tendering and awarding process for the terminal’s construction. A consortium led by China Petroleum Pipeline Company was contracted to have the project ready for operations by the end of 2022, though the Audit Office report notes that “there was no development of sufficient competition with the exclusion of two of the three bidders at the stage of checking the participation conditions.” As €331 million in publicly funded grants and loans from the European Commission, the European Investment Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has been plowed into the project, the Audit Office also said it would be notifying the European Public Prosecutor’s Office. The revised project completion timetable of July 2024 is now unlikely to be met due to both the non-arrival to the island so far of a floating storage and regasification vessel and the lack of preparedness of a range of critical, related infrastructure. (Cyprus Mail, Cyprus Mail, Cyprus Mail, GEM.wiki) 

New report offers a way out of Germany’s crippling gas dependency cul-de-sac: As political stalemate in Berlin this week delayed a way forward on Germany’s €40 billion (US$43.5 billion) power strategy and the future role to be played by a potentially 15,000 megawatt fleet of full or partially gas-fired power plants, a new report from the German Energy Independence Council (Fachrat Energieunabhängigkeit) has laid out an investment roadmap for financing a reduction in Germany’s gas dependency by up to 78%. A ten-point package of measures to achieve a “security-oriented energy policy” places emphasis on the electrification of heating for buildings and industry as a solution for the country’s substitution since 2022 of piped Russian gas with LNG imports. This short-term shift, while necessary, has exposed the German public and economy to higher inflation, stagnant growth, and — as a result — mounting social tensions. Taking into account recent cuts to the federal budget, the 127-page report from eight experts from the fields of finance, economic policy, and technology identifies how €526 billion (US$572 billion) in private sector investments — accompanied by some targeted public funding — can be practically freed up to deliver gas-free technologies by 2045. (ZOE Institute for Future-fit Economies [Pdf], Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Clean Energy Wire, Reuters) 

U.S. ups the pressure for Western Balkans link, more partners join Vertical Corridor scheme: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has written to the foreign ministries of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Croatia and urged the two countries to clear impediments obstructing the realization of the Southern Gas Interconnection pipeline. Long in the planning, the project would supply BiH with gas from Croatia, though construction has yet to begin in spite of an intended 2024 start date. Ostensibly part of a U.S. — and EU — bid to end BiH’s dependence on Russian gas, the interconnector would also hook up BiH to Croatia’s import terminal at Krk, which mainly receives LNG shipments from the U.S. The gas grid operators of Moldova, Slovakia, and Ukraine have joined companies from other southeast European countries in the Vertical Corridor initiative aimed at enabling bidirectional flows of gas from north to south and from south to north, as well as supporting Greece’s ambitions of becoming an LNG hub. Among the announcements, the head of Ukraine’s GTSOU said, “We expect to supply over 7 billion cubic meters [bcm] of gas from Romania to Central Europe a year additionally.” In the company of EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson, the grid operators also pointed out that new projects under the scheme will likely require public support and financing. (BalkanInsight, EURACTIV [registration required], GEM.wiki, CEENERGY NEWS, EURACTIV) 

Australia: Questions are being asked by a bipartisan group of politicians and transparency advocates about how EY Oceania was hired by Anthony Albanese’s government for advice on climate policy and gas emissions while the consultancy firm was actively supporting the Australian oil and gas industry’s lobbying efforts.

Belgium: Energy minister Tinne Van der Straeten told the European Parliament that, due to existing contractual obligations, it was “not entirely clear” if Belgium would be able to block imports of Russian LNG under a forthcoming optional EU law.

China: The Ministry of Natural Resources has certified new reserves of 133 bcm of tight gas in a Sinopec-operated field in the southwest Sichuan basin.

Kazakhstan: Canadian firm Condor Energies has agreed a feed gas deal with the Kazakh government for a first modular LNG production facility that would produce fuel to replace diesel usage in rail locomotives or large mine haul trucks. 

Libya: A major gas exploration deal, said to be one of the country’s largest, has been signed with BP.

Mauritania/Senegal: Mounting costs and further delays at BP’s Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG export terminal have compelled a government audit of the project. A new start date in the third quarter of this year means the project would be 28 months behind schedule.  

Morocco/Nigeria: Respective government ministers have held talks in an effort to speed up a final investment decision for the Nigeria–Morocco gas pipeline. The cooperation agreement for the US$25 billion project was signed in 2017. 

Qatar: Since mid-January, the security situation in the Red Sea region has forced Qatar to divert at least six LNG cargoes bound for Europe around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa. 

Slovakia: A claim from prime minister Robert Fico that Ukraine is prepared to renew a gas transit agreement — that expires at the end of this year — with Russia has been denied by the Ukrainian prime minister’s press office. 

Trinidad and Tobago: Prime Minister Keith Rowley has been talking up the prospects of supplying LNG to Europe with gas sourced from Venezuela’s offshore Dragon project. 

U.S.: A court in the state of Louisiana has reinstated air permits, which authorize more than 800 tons per year of toxic air pollution, that allow Formosa Plastics to progress with its plans to build the largest petrochemical complex of its kind in the country in a majority Black community.

Significant drops in Italian gas consumption and imports last year: According to official data, Italy’s gas consumption fell to 63 bcm in 2023, the lowest level recorded since 2015. Gas-fired power generation in the EU’s second biggest gas consuming state was down by 16%, driven by a 7.4% decline in gas consumed by businesses and households and a 4% decrease in the industrial sector. Italian gas imports also fell to their lowest level since 2015 — 60.6 bcm — with imports of LNG comprising a greater share, said the country’s power exchange operator GME. Russian piped gas imports accounted for 4% of total imports for the year, while roughly 10 bcm of Caspian gas was supplied to the country via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). The TAP consortium has said it will be able to boost this to over 11 bcm in 2024. Italy’s declining consumption reflects a wider trend of sagging European gas demand. Key factors include greater reliance on renewables, deindustrialization, and heat pump growth. The latest update to Bruegel’s European natural gas demand tracker estimates that EU demand was 19% below the 2019–21 average in the first eleven months of 2023. Investment bank Morgan Stanley has forecast a Europe-wide recovery in demand this year, though its estimates for 2024 are significantly lower than pre-crisis consumption levels recorded in 2021. (Reuters, AzerNews, Bruegel, Bloomberg) 

Top U.S. well owner faces scrutiny from activist investor: The largest owner of U.S. oil and gas wells, Diversified Energy, saw its share price dive initially by 13% following a range of criticisms from the UK-based activist investor Snowcap Research. Among the concerns raised by Snowcap, which focuses on environmental, social, and governance issues, are that Diversified’s reported production rates appear to indicate decline rates significantly above the headline decline rates claimed by the company. Also at issue are doubts over whether Diversified has enough funds to meet obligations to plug its inactive wells by 2036 and that an excessive debt load will necessitate a cut in dividend payments for investors within the next twelve months. Diversified, whose business model involves the purchase of end-of-life wells from major producers, and which currently owns roughly 10% of U.S. oil and gas wells in America, rejected Snowcap’s report, saying that it contains “numerous inaccuracies” and “is designed for the sole purpose of negatively impacting the company's share price for the short seller's own benefit.” Based on a recent study using satellite measurements, Snowcap also suggested that the company was underreporting the methane emission intensity of its operations by up to a factor of 16. Diversified’s annual results are due to be published before the end of next week. (Rigzone, Sharecast, ShareCast) 

India's gas demand and imports rose in 2023 as renewables also advanced: Preliminary data from the national oil ministry show that India’s gas demand rose by 6% in 2023 to 64 bcm alongside a 6% increase in domestic production to 35 bcm. Despite being sluggish through October, LNG import volumes finished the year up by 7% on 2022 levels at 29 bcm. Gas currently accounts for 6% of the country’s installed power generation capacity and Delhi is aiming to increase that share in India’s primary energy mix to 15% by 2030. An extension of long-term LNG supply contracts with Qatar Energy, which are set to expire in 2028, is reported to be in the offing. Cheaper and more flexible terms for Indian buyers are likely to be part of the deal that could be formally announced in early February and also lock in supplies until at least 2050. New data from The Energy and Resources Institute also show a ramping up of clean energy sources in the national energy mix. The New Delhi-based organization recorded wind, solar, and other renewables contributing a 30.1% share in 2023 compared to 27.5% in 2022, with coal-based power’s share dropping from 51.1% to 49.3%. (Argus, Reuters, Hindustan Times)

Chesapeake merger deal not expected to trigger a wave of U.S. gas producer tie-ups: The recently announced US$7.4 billion merger between Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy is unlikely to usher in a stampede of similar mergers and acquisitions in the gas-focused U.S. production sector, say industry analysts, though the companies’ existing interests in the Haynesville Shale will provide the combined company with an enhanced springboard to supply export terminals on the Gulf Coast. Further to regulatory and shareholders’ approval expected before the end of June 2024, the merged entity will become the largest U.S. gas producer with combined production output of 12 billion cubic feet per day, according to Enverus data, more than double that of current industry leader EQT Corporation. If big upstream gas acquisitions do occur in the coming years, interest will be centered on major Haynesville players such as Aethon Energy due to the basin’s proximity to the Gulf Coast. (Argus) 

Oil and Gas Industry Ends 2023 With a Weak Comeback and a Negative Outlook, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, January 12, 2024. (Pdf) 

This ten-page note discusses how, in spite of much fanfare throughout the year about a buoyant hydrocarbons industry, the oil and gas sector ended 2023 near the bottom of the stock market and also facing increased climate-related stringency from credit rating agencies.


“We’re Dying Here”: The Fight for Life in a Louisiana Fossil Fuel Sacrifice Zone, Human Rights Watch, January 25, 2024. (Pdf, or available online here) 

This 98-page report documents evidence from more than a year’s fieldwork in the U.S. state of Louisiana’s “Cancer Alley” and reveals the devastating effects on the health and environment of communities that exist side by side with 200 fossil fuel and petrochemical operations.