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October 19, 2023
Issue 486  |  View Past Issues
CoalWire
Published by Global Energy Monitor

Editor's Note

A new Global Energy Monitor report paints a sobering picture of the looming upheaval in global coal industry employment, with more than 410,000 jobs likely to be lost as existing mines close over the next decade due to resource depletion. While most of the coal industry workforce is in China, India and Indonesia, there is little evidence of planning in most areas for a post-coal economy. In the US, Centralia in Washington State offers an example of a city investing early in a post-coal economy.

The decisive defeat of the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) government in Poland offers hope that the new government will accelerate the deployment of renewables and cut the country’s polluted air. The new government will confront the need to develop a just transition strategy that qualifies for European Union funding.

In India, the Modi government has dropped restrictions that previously prevented the allocation of coal blocks where there was only a single bidder. One of the beneficiaries of the change has been Adani, which was in the news again after a Financial Times investigation revealed how the price of coal increased dramatically between its export from Indonesia and arrival at Indian ports. The Modi government has continued its crackdown on NGOs, stripping four groups of their tax status. All had either raised concerns about Adani or had advised or supported groups that did. As in Vietnam, there is increasing intolerance for voices that dissent with government policy.

Bob Burton

Features

How a coal town revived itself and lessons for others

Centralia in the US state of Washington used US$55 million in economic transition funding to invest in energy efficiency upgrades, distributed energy generation and education. The results offer a potential roadmap for other coal-dependent communities, writes Sean O’Leary from the Ohio River Valley Institute in Cipher.

The insurance world is flirting with its climate doom loop

As the costs of climate change are pushed on to consumers through premiums and taxpayers through public provision or backstops, it makes little sense not to tighten restrictions on where insurers are investing, writes Helen Thomas in the Financial Times.

Vietnam: Why climate activism can be a risky business

The politics of climate change in Vietnam’s authoritarian system has led to climate activists being arrested and imprisoned, writes Tommy Walker in Deutsche Welle.

The eight deadly sins of analysing the energy transition

Why are so many analysts so wrong about the pace and scale of innovation in the transition to renewable energy, ask Sam Butler-Sloss and Kingsmill Bond from RMI.

Top News

Resource depletion to hit global coal mining workforce: A new Global Energy Monitor (GEM) estimates that the global coal mining industry directly employs about 2.7 million coal miners, with 414,200 working in mines likely to reach the end of their life by 2035. The report estimates that by 2050, about 990,200 jobs will no longer exist as operating mines close, given the coal industry’s foreseeable closures irrespective of climate policies. GEM estimates that 1.5 million coal miners produce more than 85 of China’s coal, which accounts for about half of global production, with the three provinces of Shanxi, Henan, and Inner Mongolia employing approximately 870,400 people and accounting for about 32 per cent of the worldwide coal mining workforce. The combined coal mining workforce in China, India and Indonesia, the three largest coal producers, is three times greater than the rest of the world. GEM estimates 241,900 jobs could be lost by 2050 in Shanxi province in China and 73,800 by Coal India. The report notes that most mines have no planning underway for the transition to a post-coal economy or extending the life of the projects. (Climate Home News, Global Energy Monitor)

Polish election result offers prospect of climate policy change: The ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) government, which has previously said a coal phase-out will not occur until 2049, was defeated at the October 15 election despite strong backing by state-owned media. While PiS won the largest share of the vote, the Civic Coalition, Third Way, and New Left parties will command a majority of the seats. The three parties support wind and solar generation to replace coal as the primary source of electricity by 2030. Since PiS formed government in 2015, it has opposed European Union measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions and backed the extension of the Turow coal mine despite significant impacts in cross-border towns in the Czech Republic. The defeat of the PiS will also remove a brake on European Union climate policies. The negotiation of a multi-party government may take a month or two but climate policy is considered as one of the easier areas to reach agreement on. (Politico, Clean Energy Wire)

Most major US utilities clinging to coal plants: A Sierra Club review of the plans of 77 power utilities has found only a marginal improvement in the last year in action to cut fossil fuel generation and replace it with clean energy. The utilities 50 parent companies own more than half the coal and gas generation in the country. The report finds that the utilities plan to retire just 35 percent of their existing coal capacity by 2030, despite the current cost advantage of new solar, wind, or energy storage. Of the 77 utilities, only 20 will be coal-free by 2030. The Sierra Club estimates that the coal plants slated to continue operating beyond 2030 are responsible for about 3800 deaths annually due to particulate pollution. The report notes that all 29 investor-owned utilities reviewed are members of the Edison Electric Institute, a lobby group opposing Environmental Protection Agency standards for cutting greenhouse gas emissions from coal and gas plants. (Sierra Club [Pdf])

Indian agency revokes tax status of four NGOs: The Income Tax Department has rescinded the tax exemption status of four NGOs – Oxfam India, CARE India, Legal Initiative for Forest and Environment, and Environics Trust. The letters sent to Oxfam India and Environics Trust expressly referred to the groups’ role in challenging Adani as one of the reasons for the revocation of their tax status. The letter to Oxfam India referred to the group’s submission to the UN Global Compact seeking to delist Adani Ports, while the letter to the Environics Trust tax referred to its work supporting groups critical of Adani coal projects in Odisha and opposing Jindal Steel’s proposed 13 million tonnes a year steelworks in Odisha. The Ministry of Home Affairs has previously suspended the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) licences for Oxfam India, Environics Trust and CARE India. Without an FCRA licence, NGOs can’t accept overseas funding. Environics Trust and LIFE will likely challenge the Income Tax Department’s decisions in court. (NewsLaundry)

Mixed progress two years on from China’s ban on overseas coal projects: In the two years since President Xi Jinping announced a ban on the financing and construction of new coal plants overseas, about 36,300 MW of coal plants have been officially cancelled. In the last year, most of the newly cancelled plants were in Mongolia, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) estimates the cancelled plants would have emitted 4.1 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions over their lifetime. When the ban was announced, it was estimated to affect about 103 coal plants with a combined capacity of 104,000 MW in 28 countries. CREA estimates 18,100 MW of coal plants have been commissioned after the ban was announced, with the revival of a further 7200 MW of plants initially shelved or cancelled. The report states that 23 plants with a combined capacity of 19,200 MW are in the pre-permit phase, with many delayed as project developers struggle to obtain finance. (Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air)

Bosnia and Herzegovina utility warns Chinese consortium over contract: Bosnia & Herzegovina’s state-owned Elektroprivreda BiH (EPBiH) has issued a third formal warning to a Chinese consortium that it will terminate the contract for the 450 MW unit 7 at the Tuzla coal plant unless construction work on the project commences. EPBiH entered into a contract with a consortium of China Gezhouba and Guandong Electric Power Design in 2014, but the consortium struggled to obtain finance and was delayed after project partners, such as General Electric, withdrew. In June 2022, a loan guarantee granted by the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Export-Import Bank of China for the plant was deemed illegal by the State Aid Council. According to Bankwatch and Climate Action Network Europe, the plant has no environmental permit, and the financing contract has not been officially cancelled. (Intellinews, Global Energy Monitor)

News

Australia: Environmental groups call for overhaul of environmental laws after Federal Court judge dismisses a legal challenge Minister for Environment’s approval of two coal mine expansions.

Australia: CS Energy, a Queensland government-owned utility, has been fined A$67,800 (US$43,200) for operating its 840 MW Callide C coal unit without regulatory approval when a major explosion crippled the unit and destabilised the grid.

Botswana: UK-listed Kibo Energy has sold its remaining 35 per cent stake in a subsidiary that holds the 300 MW Mabasekwa coal plant to Shumba Energy.

Bulgaria: Greenpeace activists protest against the continued operation of the 900 MW Maritsa 3 lignite plant.

Canada: The Supreme Court of Canada ruled in favour of Alberta on a challenge against the Impact Assessment Act, stating the law “is largely unconstitutional”. The ruling has implications for new coal projects.

India: The Securities and Exchange Board of India is investigating investments in Adani Group companies by a British Virgin Islands fund, Gulf Asia Trade & Investment.

India: Indian imports of discounted Russian metallurgical coal have surged in the April to September period, with Australian cargoes declining by eight per cent. India now imports more metallurgical coal from Russia than from Canada and Mozambique.

South Africa: The 800 MW Unit 1 at Kusile power station has returned to service after a year offline due to the collapse of the flue gas duct. Eskom has been granted an exemption from sulphur dioxide emission limits until the ductwork is repaired.

Turkey: Ten crew members of the Panamanian-registered ship Phoenician were arrested after 141.5 kilograms of cocaine was discovered in the cargo of Colombian coal.

US: The Supreme Court has declined to hear a defamation claim brought by former CEO of Massey Energy, Don Blankenship, against news organisations that inaccurately referred to him as a convicted felon.  Blankenship was convicted of a misdemeanour over the April 2010 coal mine disaster at the Upper Big Branch Creek that killed 29 miners.

US: A BNSF Railway coal train derailed off a bridge in Colorado, killing a truck driver on the freeway below.

US: Illinois Attorney General has filed a lawsuit against the City, Water, Light, and Power, alleging the utility released 700 tons of coal ash from its 230 MW Dallman coal plant in August 2021.

US: Santee Cooper was fined US$99,000 for violating sulphur dioxide emission standards for more than 130 days in 2021 at one of the coal units at its Winyah Generating Station in South Carolina.

Companies + Markets

Data reveals Adani coal prices soared in transit from Indonesia to India: A Financial Times investigation found that Adani companies in India imported about $US4.8 billion of coal over two years at prices up to twice the market price. The media outlet also reviewed 30 coal shipments from Indonesia to India between 2019 and 2021. The export price in Indonesia was US$139 million, with an additional US$3.1 million for shipping and insurance costs. In India, the value of the coal was disclosed as US$215 million, a potential profit of up to US$73 million. In 2014, India’s Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) launched an investigation into 40 companies, including 10 Adani-related entities, for inflating the price of imported coal to allegedly shift funds overseas and overcharge Indian power companies. Earlier this year, the DRI dropped an appeal against an adverse lower court ruling. The Adani Group said the accusations against the company are “false and baseless” and are “attempts to destabilise the Adani Group”. Shares in Adani Enterprises declined two per cent after the Financial Times story was published and are currently down about 35 per cent since the Hindenburg Research report on the company was released in January. (Financial Times, Scroll, Adani Group)

Modi government allows sale of coal blocks to sole bidders: In mid-2020, the Modi government quietly changed the rules governing the auctioning of coal blocks so that areas that attracted only one bid could be allocated at the discretion the secretaries of the Ministry of Coal and three other agencies. Since then, 12 companies – including Adani, Vedanta, JSW Steel and Birla Corporation subsidiaries – have been allocated coal blocks where they were the sole bidder. The revelation is politically sensitive for Modi, who was elected in May 2014 on an anti-corruption mandate after a series of coal allocation scandals under the previous government. In August 2014, the Supreme Court of India overturned the allocation of 204 coal blocks because the decisions had not been made transparently, and a competitive bidding process had not determined the value of resources. In 2015, the Modi government announced it would auction the affected coal blocks, but areas that did not attract a minimum of two bidders would be passed in. (The Reporters Collective)

Vietnamese coal imports climb: Vietnam imported 37.77 million tonnes of coal in the first nine months of this year, up from 24.4 million tonnes compared to the same period in 2022. While customs data does not distinguish between thermal and metallurgical coal, electricity consumption in the first nine months of the year increased by 3.1 per cent. Steel and cement production also grew strongly in the first nine months of 2023. Coal imports are projected to increase steadily over the next decade with the commissioning of new coal plants and peak at about 85 million tonnes in 2035. Domestic coal production by state-owned Vinacomin has plateaued, in part because prices are regulated making investment in expensive underground production unprofitable. Vincomin is looking to increase imports in 2024 to 16-17 million tonnes, up from 9 million tonnes in 2023, for blending with domestic coal for sale to utilities. (Argus)

Report questions viability of Adaro’s coal-based aluminium smelter: A report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) casts doubt on the financial viability of the Adaro Group’s aluminium smelter in Kaltara Industrial Park. Adaro is building a 1100 MW captive coal plant to supply the 500,000 tonnes a year first stage of the smelter it plans to commission in the first half of 2025. Adaro, the second largest private coal mining company in Indonesia, received a US$603 million loan from a coalition of Indonesian banks for the coal plant in May. IEEFA estimates that for Adaro to recover the project’s US$2 billion capital cost, it will require a 30 per cent increase in the price of aluminium to US$2800 per tonne and for it to remain at that level for 8 to 11 years. (Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis, Global Energy Monitor)

Green Steel Transition

Report few banks restrict lending for metallurgical coal mines: BankTrack, a European NGO, has found that only four banks out of 150 reviewed have policies restricting finance for metallurgical coal projects, but even these include significant loopholes. The review found that Lloyds Bank, HSBC, Nordea and Macquarie include restrictions on metallurgical coal financing, but only three exclude project finance for new mines. Lloyds excludes project finance for all metallurgical coal mines, whether new or existing and excludes support for new customers that gain revenue from metallurgical coal mining. HSBC excludes project finance for new metallurgical coal mines, which it defines as a project where thermal coal comprises less than 30 per cent of the production of the reserve. Nordea Asset Management restricts investments in companies that gain 30 per cent or more of revenue from coal, including metallurgical coal. Macquarie’s policy is to exit support for thermal and metallurgical coal by the end of 2024, but this only applies to companies that earn more than half of their revenue from coal production. No banks exclude underwriting bonds for metallurgical coal companies expanding production. (BankTrack)

Analyst doubts CCS will make much of a mark in the steel sector: The Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has challenged the suggestion that carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology will be widely used for blast furnace-based steel plants. IEEFA’s Simon Nicholas said that as steel plants have multiple points of greenhouse gas emissions, retrofitting CCS is likely to be prohibitive. With steel plants mainly located close to centres of demand, there is no guarantee that captured carbon dioxide can be stored locally. In June 2022, ArcelorMittal commissioned a small-scale €200 million (US$211 million) CCS facility at its steelworks at Ghent in Belgium to process carbon dioxide into ethanol. Nicholas notes that if the plant operates at full capacity, the 125,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide captured each year would represent just two per cent of the greenhouse gas emissions from the plant. IEEFA argues direct reduce iron and hydrogen-based steelmaking offers more flexibility than blast furnace production with CCS. (Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis)

Resources

Guidelines for selecting just transition projects, Bankwatch Network, October 2023. (Pdf)

This 19-page report provides criteria public authorities can draw on when selecting just transition and green economy projects in coal regions for funding through the European Commission’s Just Transition Mechanism.