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November 16, 2023
Issue 490  |  View Past Issues
CoalWire
Published by Global Energy Monitor

Editor's Note

A new analysis suggests that the dramatic increase in renewables deployment in China could result in fossil fuel emissions declining from 2024. Having built a significant domestic renewables manufacturing sector, China can drive coal generation down rapidly. It also has implications for the remaining overseas coal projects under consideration in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie notes that the large domestic renewables supply capacity will likely flow through to new BRI projects. China’s massive domestic coal power construction spree has driven down utilisation rates. In response, the government’s planning agency plans to introduce a capacity payments scheme for coal generators starting in 2024.

South Africa’s potential transition from coal faces increasingly strong headwinds. The health costs of postponing the decommissioning of old coal plants are increasingly well-known but have been downplayed. The opposition to a transition away from coal by the Economic Freedom Fighters, a minor political party, highlights the growing policy uncertainty ahead of the 2024 general election. In a candid speech, Crispian Olver, the executive director of South Africa’s Presidential Climate Commission, pointed to the coalition of forces resisting the transition.

Bob Burton

Features

China’s emissions set to fall in 2024 after record growth in clean energy

If coal interests fail to stall the expansion of China’s wind and solar capacity, then low-carbon energy growth would be sufficient to cover rising electricity demand beyond 2024 and push fossil fuel use into an extended period of structural decline, writes Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Carbon Brief.

China pledged to ‘strictly control’ coal. The opposite happened.

The international community needs to push Chinese President Xi Jinping to take his April 2021 pledge to “strictly control coal-fired power generation projects” seriously, including at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco this week, writes Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, and Byford Tsang from E3G in Foreign Policy.

China sets out methane plan, but no reduction target

Experts argue that the baseline estimate used in China’s recently released methane emissions plan is unreliable and the absence of a reduction target is to avoid shutting down coal mines, writes Joe Lo in Climate Home News.

South Africa’s delayed energy transition costs thousands of lives

Thousands of families in the Mpumalanga Highveld and other coal areas are quietly bearing the burden of poor health caused by the South African government’s failure to stick to the previously agreed schedule of coal closures, writes Melissa Fourie in Business Day.

Crooked coal, corruption and politics — experts flag the barriers to South Africa’s energy transition

A lack of political leadership, disjointed politics around the country’s energy future and a strong fossil fuel lobby are some of the significant obstacles to South Africa’s energy transition, writes Ethan van Diemen in the Daily Maverick.

Top News

Polish opposition parties finalise agreement ahead of parliamentary vote: The three political groups that won a majority of seats in the Polish parliament – the Civic Coalition, the Third Way, and New Left – have entered into a coalition agreement on core policies for a new government, including climate policy. The agreement commits the coalition to increase funding for energy efficiency, increase renewable generation and transmission connections, and allocate all of the revenue collected from the European Union’s carbon price, estimated at €6 billion (US$6.4 billion) in 2022, to fund the energy transition. President Andrzej Duda will give the incumbent of Law and Justice party (PiS), which won 194 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, a chance to form a government. However, all other groups have ruled out working with PiS. The previous government had also committed to commissioning conventional nuclear plants and small modular reactors in the 2030s as part of the transition away from coal. Last week, the US-based NuScale – considered the leading developer of small modular reactors – scrapped its first project in the US. In 2022, NuScale signed an agreement with the mining company KGHM to develop a project in Poland. (AP News, Reuters)

South African opposition party steps up pro-coal rhetoric: Julius Malema, the leader of the populist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) political party, has stepped up his defence of South Africa’s continued reliance on coal, insisting “There is nothing we can do with the economy of South Africa without coal”. Speaking at a forum in Mpumalanga province, home to Eskom’s coal plants and associated mines, Malema said that “without coal, there is no Mpumalanga” and that “the day they close coal power stations, that is the day you are all gone”. Malema’s comments come as the government led by the African National Congress’s (ANC) President Cyril Ramaphosa is seeking to postpone coal plant closures. South Africa’s next general election will be held in 2024, with polling suggesting the ANC could lose its majority in the 400-seat parliament. In this scenario, the ANC would be forced to rely on one or more minor parties, potentially including the EFF, to form a government. The EFF currently holds 44 seats in parliament. (IOL)

Report says the Philippines can end coal power by 2035: Climate Analytics, a climate policy think tank, argues that the Philippines would have lower-cost power, greater energy security, and meet its Paris Agreement targets if it phases out coal generation by 2035.  The Philippines has 26 operating coal plants with a combined capacity of 12,083 megawatts (MW), generating about 60 per cent of its electricity from coal. The rapid growth in coal power capacity over the last 15 years has driven reliance on expensive imported coal, leading to the Philippines having one of the highest electricity costs in Southeast Asia. Climate Analytics argues a 1.5°C Paris Agreement pathway would reduce the levelised cost of electricity by 12 per cent by 2030. The draft Philippines Energy Plan 2023-2050 estimates coal generation would hold a 23.1 per cent share in 2040 in its clean energy scenario. The plan estimates a rapid growth in renewables but at a slower rate than the Climate Analytics proposed pathway. (PhilStar, Climate Analytics)

Study finds US Indigenous miners less likely to get black lung benefits: A study by researchers from National Jewish Health and published in the Annals of the American Thoracic Society found that Indigenous coal miners in western US states were less likely to qualify for medical benefits than other coal miners. The study of 691 coal miners in western US states found that nine per cent of the 289 Indigenous miners had higher rates of lung function impairment and black lung compared to non-Indigenous miners. The researchers, who reviewed voluntary data from 2002 to 2023, flagged that the test for lung function mandated by the US Department of Labor may not be an appropriate standard for Indigenous miners. (Mining.com, Annals of the American Thoracic Society)

A US coal company gained a US$12.6 million windfall from donation: A report by the Checks and Balances Project estimates that Resource Fuels received US$12.6 million in above-market payments in 2020 for coal supplied to Ohio Valley Electric Company for its 1303 MW Clifty Creek plant in Indiana and the 1086 MW Kyger Creek coal plant in Ohio. The two coal plants, which are still operating, were Resource Fuels’ sole customers in 2020 and were provided with long-term subsidies by Ohio’s 2019 House Bill 6 (HB6). In 2020, Resource Fuels contributed a US$250,000 donation to Generation Now, the dark money fund used by Republican Larry Householder to back his preferred candidates ahead of the 2018 Ohio election. In return for the financial support from Resource Fuels and power utilities, Householder pushed through HB6, which provided subsidies for two coal and two nuclear plants and gutted the state’s renewables and energy efficiency standards. In June, Householder was sentenced to 20 years in federal prison after his conviction on bribery and racketeering charges associated with the US$61 million paid to Generation Now and associated groups. (Energy News Network, Checks and Balances Project)

Indian court rejects police bid to pursue journalists over Adani story: The Supreme Court of India granted an interim order blocking Gujarat police from taking action against two Financial Times journalists, Benjamin Parkin and Chloe Cornish, over an article published in August titled “Secret paper trail reveals hidden Adani investors” that they had not written. A hearing on the application will be held on December 1. The week before, the Supreme Court granted interim protection to Indian journalists Ravi Nair and Anand Mangnale, who wrote an article for the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP). The OCCRP revealed that hackers attempted to plant Pegasus spyware on the iPhone of Anand Mangnale, one of the journalists who revealed the names of two investors who put hundreds of millions of dollars into Adani Group stock. Apple alerted Mangnale, other journalists and opposition political leaders that their phones may have been targeted. Pegasus spyware created by the Israeli company NSO is licensed only to governments. (Scroll, Scroll)

Pro-coal US senator fuels speculation of Presidential campaign: West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin has announced he will not seek another term in the Senate at the 2024 election, a move likely to see the election of Republican Governor and coal baron Jim Justice. Manchin, a pro-coal Democrat with a family company involved in the industry and long-standing opposition to crucial climate policies. With Manchin’s impending retirement, the Democrats will likely to lose their grip on the Senate, which they currently hold 51-49. Announcing his retirement, Manchin said he would tour the country “to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilise the middle and bring Americans together.” His comment is widely interpreted as indicating his interest in running as a third-party candidate in the 2024 election campaign with the backing of No Labels. The No Labels group is promoting an “all of the above” energy policy that includes coal generation. (CBS News, Guardian)

“Rent seeking and corruption are part of what we need to talk about if we are going to engineer a consensus on this [energy] transition going forward, and I think it is going to be very difficult to get there,”

said Crispian Olver, the executive director of South Africa’s Presidential Climate Commission.

News

Australia: The Queensland government has approved the expansion of Anglo American’s Lake Lindsay mine. The expansion will produce about 5.6 million tonnes of metallurgical coal.

Australia: The new enforcement arm of the Queensland Conservation Council has launched legal action against New Hope Corporation over the alleged illegal mining of the ‘West Pit’ at the New Acland coal mine.

South Africa: The CEO of coal-to-oil producer Sasol has resigned over concerns about potential conflicts of interest.

Sweden: Truck maker Scania has signed a letter of intent to buy fossil fuel-free steel from Swedish metals maker SSAB from 2026, with volumes rising until 2030.

UK: The Welsh government has released a map of the 350 disused coal tips requiring frequent inspection. The mapping project followed the 60,000-tonne landslip at Tylorstown in February 2020.

US: The Environmental Protection Agency has ordered Allegheny County to justify or rewrite air permit provisions on testing and monitoring requirements for US Steel’s Clairton Coke Works near Pittsburgh.

Companies + Markets

China unveils capacity payments scheme for coal plants: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s state planning agency, has announced that coal power generators will receive capacity payments of 330 yuan (US$45.25) for each kilowatt per year. The rate has been set to allow generators to recover about 30 per cent of their capital costs on the plants in the next two years. The agency said the payment, which would take effect from January 1, 2024, would be collected through a levy on commercial and industrial users. The rate will increase in 2026 to allow generators to increase recovery to about 50 per cent of capital costs. The measure will support the financial viability of generators that face increasing competition from renewable generation. However, declining coal plant capacity factors have also been undercut by new coal plant construction promoted by provincial governments and allowed by the central government. In the short term, the capacity mechanism will likely incentivise the construction of permitted coal plants that will be guaranteed significant income, regardless of the need. (Reuters, Power)

Coal projects linger on in China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Wood Mackenzie, an energy industry consultancy, says China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has supported Chinese companies to build 128,000 MW of overseas power projects, of which about 50,000 MW are coal plants, over the last 10 years. Following President Xi Jinping’s September 2021 pledge to end support for new overseas coal plants, many proposed projects have been cancelled. Wood Mackenzie estimates a further 21 coal projects could be affected by the policy, with 13 projects at the planning stage likely to be shelved. Wood Mackenzie Mackenzie argues China is shifting its support to projects with direct Chinese investment. It also argues there will be greater emphasis on renewable energy projects, in part to provide markets for Chinese solar equipment. (WoodMackenzie)

Teck to sell coal business to Glencore, Nippon Steel and POSCO: Teck Resources, a major Canadian mining company, will sell its metallurgical coal division, Elk Valley Resources (EVR), to Glencore, Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel and Korean steel producer POSCO for US$8.9 billion. Under the terms of the deal, Glencore will buy a 77 per cent stake in EVR for US$6.93 billion, and Nippon Steel will pay US$1.7 billion and contribute its 2.5 per cent stake in Teck’s Elkview Operations in return for a 20 per cent stake in EVR. POSCO has agreed to swap its 2.5 per cent stake in Elkview Operations and its 20 per cent stake in Teck’s Greenhills joint venture for a three per cent share of EVR. Teck Resources is the world’s second-largest metallurgical coal exporter after BHP but has been dogged by controversy over selenium pollution from its mines. The proposed transaction is subject to Canadian government approval. If approved, EVR will hold four metallurgical coal mines that produced 21.5 million tonnes in 2022 and have a 46 per cent stake in Neptune Terminals, a bulk commodities export terminal in Vancouver. Glencore stated it plans to spin off EVR and its thermal coal operations into a new company within two years of completing the Teck transaction. (Globe and Mail, Glencore)

India is set to auction a further 39 coal blocks: India’s Ministry of Coal has announced it will auction 39 coal blocks, including 35 new areas and four that failed to attract sufficient interest in the last sale. The coal blocks are in Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Odisha, and West Bengal. The ministry wants Indian coal production to increase to about 1.4 billion tonnes by 2027 and 1.58 billion tonnes by 2030. Current Indian coal production is about one billion tonnes, with about 821 million tonnes used in coal power plants. (Inventiva)

Insurance scorecard finds coal policies are biting but spread is slow: Insure Our Future’s seventh annual insurance industry scorecard has found that 45 companies have policy restrictions affecting coal mining companies and power generators. While the report finds that companies are finding it harder to obtain coverage for new projects and, increasingly, for existing operations, the spread of policy restrictions to more insurance companies is slowing.  Insurance industry data company Insuramore estimates that insurance companies with a 41.2 per cent share of the commercial property and casualty market and a 62.7 per cent share of the reinsurance market have policies restricting support for companies with coal interests, a 1.4 per cent and 4.5 per cent increase, respectively. Insuramore estimates the insurance industry earned about US$21.25 billion in 2022 from fossil fuel clients. Insure our Future ranks Allianz, AXA, Swiss Re and Generali with the highest scores on coal exit policies, and SCOR ranks best “by a large margin” on fossil fuel divestment policies. (Insure Our Future)

Indonesian coal exports surge: Indonesian coal exports have climbed to 413 million tonnes in the first 10 months of 2023, up 11.5 per cent compared to the same period in 2022. Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, now accounts for just over 50 per cent of the seaborne coal trade. Indonesia’s share in the seaborne thermal coal trade has come as rival exporters – Australia, Russia, South Africa, and Colombia – have all lost market share. Indonesia’s two largest markets are China, which has a 44 per cent share and India, which has accounted for 20 per cent this year. China and India are markets that prefer low-cost coal, with Indonesian shipments incurring lower freight costs. (Reuters)

Resources

Power Grab, WOSU Public Media. (Podcast)

This six-episode series documents the US$61 million Ohio power utility scandal that resulted in the conviction of Ohio Republican House Speaker Larry Householder on racketeering charges.

Who has the Power? South Africa’s Energy Profiteers, Open Secrets, November 2023.

This 94-page report provides a detailed overview of the significant corporate players in South Africa’s energy sector and includes a useful seven-page summary of the coal sector.